Trump Will Try To Take The Executive Branch The Way Of SCOTUS

 

Here is my current thought, followed by the thoughts and fears of my friend Eric Bernthal, written on the day after the election.

 

What Trump aims to do is this: make of the executive branch what the Republicans have done to SCOTUS. Destroy probity, inject sectarian agenda, destroy expertise, inject disrespect, egoism over beneficence, destruction over creation, out with the good people and in with the bad.

Trump is essentially destructive, zero-sum thinking, cruel, crude, and barbaric.  But aside from those charming characteristics, the structure of government is in danger, as many have opined.  The only remaining guardrails are the Congress - I have hopes for some traditional Republicans rejecting some nominees, for Mitch McConnell to be something of a leader in opposition to MAGA, and for the traditional partnership of congressional committees and the elements of government that they relate to forming a braking influence on destruction.  It's also possible that the permanent government will resist their being purged.  But we're really at the last ditch her of Federal guardrails.

I think the states will also have a braking influence - the residual guardrail of federalism.  I expect the more Democratic states to relate more closely to each other, pass conforming legislation on environment, guns, and other objectives.

I would also hope that the Democrats would reimagine themselves, although I think there are a lot of retardants on that.  Their operating theory is gerontocracy, that old hands should lead.  Currently, there is a New York Times article saying that Jamie Raskin, age 61, is being encouraged to challenge Jerry Nadler, 78, for ranking member of the Judiciary Committee.  Nadler is feisty and doesn't want to give up control. It's Joe Biden redux.  I doubt Schumer is ready to go either, or the others mentioned in the article, or Richie Neal (Ways and Means,) or many others. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/30/us/politics/democrats-nadler-raskin.html​.

 

Here's what I say to them: Fellas - read the tea leaves.  A party of old people will find it hard to lead a younger country, and although I am reluctant to indulge in identity politics, age has to be considered.  In a word, too many of the Democrats are navel gazing.  New ideas usually don't flow from a 77 year old.  People are fed up with "old hands."  When it comes to guard rails, will the Democrats form a strong opposition with a real chance to take power, or will they be same-old same-old, tried and failed upward?  Doesn't look so hopeful to me, but maybe the rank and file will realize that the Democrats as currently constituted are not part of the guardrails, but part of the enablers.  It's a little depressing to think that my battle cry has to be, "You never know."

And here is the note written after the election by Bernthal, who had foreseen Trump's election, while I was confident Kamala would win.  What he is outlining is what I refer to above as the SCOTUS-ization of the Executive, in some detail.

I am staggeringly depressed by this — not just Trump's win, but what is likely a total sweep in Washington. I get not a drop of pleasure in saying, "I told you so". 

It's impossible to predict what this will do to the country, but the United States has definitely gotten the President they wanted. Trump improved his support among every demographic group in the country;  he gained tremendously with Latinos and with blue-collar workers who were still traditionally Democratic (until now).  He took all the red states and plenty of blue states. He got plenty of women's votes, too. 

But what actually happens to our government?  I remember when Reagan — and Trump, too, first time around — put real clowns, dangerous and delusional radicals into key positions, and their goal was literally to tear the government down.  It's likely to be that and worse this time. RFK Jr. in charge of health care? Steve Bannon setting national policy?  Stephen Miller as the new Immigration Czar?  Michael Flynn running the military?There will be hyperpartisans — caring about nothing but loyalty to the President — running vastly complex and sophisticated organizations like DOJ, FDA, Interior, Agriculture and so on.  Those agencies and departments will be stripped to the bone.  No one is going to be protecting our air and water; no one is going to keep the food supply safe.    The Supreme Court is now permanently -- at least, for several generations -- removed as the ultimate protector of civil rights and freedoms.  Vast numbers of immigrant families will be rooted out, rounded up, separated from their American citizen children, and sent across the border. Trump's tariff mania is likely to spike widespread job loss here in the US and trigger major inflation.  And the scariest part is to contemplate foreign policy, where Trump's ignorance and inattentiveness will continue to cede the world's markets to China, perhaps irrevocably. Ukraine will either cede the eastern half of its country to Russia or disappear as a country altogether within months. And in the ultimate irony for the moronic Jews who supported Trump, maybe Israel will, too. (How foolish of them to think that Trump actually gives a shit about them, about Israel or about anything other than his self-aggrandizement. As American popular support for Israel continues to dwindle with every Palestinian death,  Iran is likely to bet that Americans won't care if Israel is overrun, and if they don't care, Trump won't care. Unlike Biden, who proclaimed that he is a "lifelong Zionist", Trump really holds no brief for Jews, Israel, or anyone else, beyond himself.

 

Could things get even worse?  Sure. We could have an actual collapse of the core American social contract, the rise of an authoritarian President -- with a Congress afraid to intercede -- giving us soldiers in the streets to quell political dissent, brazen gerrymandering to protect his support forever, acquiescence to vigilantism by the worst of the MAGA crowd (Proud Boys and the like), party loyalty tests for every government job, a complete rollback to the freedoms attained by gay people, a near total ban on immigration (destroying our labor supply and choking off our traditional advantage of having the world's brightest people come here to learn and to work and to innovate in many fields).

 

It might not be that bad. After all, Trump has no real political philosophy (which differentiates him from Hitler) nor an adult's attention span (which differentiates him from everyone else). And he's a moron, not a monster, in his personal views (i.e., he's not a warmonger or lusting for world control).  But the moderates in Congress are gone, the MAGAs are in control, the crazies (Bannon and Miller and Flynn and RFK, JR) have total power.  So why wouldn't this dystopian view happen? Who is there to stop it? 

 

 

Hoping that his is an exaggerated fear, not an understated one.  We have no way of knowing, but the danger of falling into illiberalism is palpable. But we do know this: along with heinous views and aims, Trump and most of his associates are incompetents.  While incompetents can destroy, they have trouble building.  If American cultural norms hold - culture is the ultimate guardrail -- it's quite possible that the two coming years will be hard ones,and destructive ones, but ones that lead to a marked changing of the tide in the 2026 elections, and maybe this election of 2024 will mark the high-water mark of the MAGA insurgents.  

You never know.

 

Budd Shenkin

And So It Goes....

 

Just an observational note: I think my mood since the election is one of shock. Jesus, I think, it's really happening.  I wonder what will be left intact.  I've stopped watching much of the news.  I have a vague feeling of anger and betrayal at the Dems - not Kamala, who I think did quite well, but at Biden and his team for trying to stay on, at the career Dems for an apparent ineptness, at Biden and his team for not understanding that the campaign should not stop at the election, how repeated and continual connection and selling to the electorate is necessary.  "Shut up and let me govern" is a tempting attitude, but it doesn't work.  I think the policies were pretty good, but I think the big mouthed left wing progressives turned everyone off, both the elite as my friend Rick pointed out, and for me more prominently the BLM and Cory Bush and Jayapal and company - it's not the policies, it's the performance.  And as always, there was a lack of making the greater case, what is this all about, where are we headed.  

But then, as my brother points out, who pays attention to that stuff?  It's image, man, it's image, democratic government isn't based on knowledge, is it?  But that said, it wasn't a wipe out, the popular vote was close, and many Dems survived.  What they learned is another matter.  Will they youthen up the party, find the voices and people who turn people on, not the Schumers and Dick Durbans who might be sensible, but who are time-worn and uninspiring? 

But that's not really my focus.  I feel somehow depleted.  I ain't marching anymore isn't far from what I feel.  And my contempt for queen of the ball Merrick Garland is unabated.  Plus my contempt for the lawyers and DOJ who slavishly obey an obscure footnote from 1973 or so from OLC in DOJ which mentioned that while Agnew could be prosecuted while in office for a crime, the sitting President couldn't be - which they grabbed from the air.  In France they simply hold the charges in abeyance and prosecure after the term is over, which is sensible.  But the lawyers at DOJ march to the cliff obedient to a distant opinion that somehow echoes.  Defund DOJ.

I don't know what will happen.  I fear cruelty, I fear amping up hate and anti-Semitism and hate for these poor people who come to this country somehow and work, I fear dismantling of the good important things government does.  But then, my job is just concerned citizen, not professional politician nor government official.  My influence is nil.  I'm trying to fight rezoning in our neighborhood which would destroy our lovely street and adjoining streets by allowing unfettered congestion housing with 5 foot setbacks from the curb, without the need for review of plans, all of which is shoved through by Berkeley radical politicians who think anthills are great examples of how people ought to live.  I have a letter to my councilman signed by 8 houses out of the 32 or so on the street, and some others would sign, but some don't want to be seen as unsympathetic with the plight of the homeless and those with not enough money to buy a single family home in this area.  This fight seems pretty commensurate with my political abilities.  When you say act locally, this is about as local as you can get.

Probably like most others on the losing side -- and when I say losing side, pretty much everything that I voted for went down except for the proposition that said treat thieves as thieves and punish and prevent thievery, that one passed -- I live my life now and count myself lucky for a myriad of things.  I enjoy my coffee, I enjoy my chair and the view of my backyard, I enjoy my new multicolored $11.90 on-sale digital clock, how clever, and I count myself lucky to have friends who usually seem to like me, who knows why, but there it is and I am thankful.

I don't want to say "and life goes on," although that seems where I'm headed.  No, that's not what I want to say.  Instead, I want to say, let's see what happens to the awful world at large, let's enjoy good coffee cakes, let's hope to accept the things I cannot change, to have the courage to change the things I can (not much problem there, I am inherently courageous, accepting setback after setback and still going on), and to have the wisdom to know the difference.  Good enough for alcoholics, good enough for me.  Remember to appreciate.

And meanwhile, it's good that I also understand that the holiday season is the hardest time for those who have sustained a significant loss, and I derive solace from that knowledge.  It makes me happier, which is always to be wished for.

Budd Shenkin

Our Trip To Africa

 Our trip to Africa might have been the best time we ever had.  She asked me if I wanted to go, and she said if we don’t go now, we’ll ever go.  She said, I’ll pay for it.  I said yes.  It was in 2011.  She had been sober for 8 years.  She hadn’t started on her Alzheimer’s course yet.  My practice was doing very well.  We had built a house in Maui and occupied it, and she had designed a lot of it, and furnished all of it, and that had been, perhaps, her favorite wish.  It was a wonderful trip.

I see it again as I watch the wonderful Out of Africa.  That might be why I cry.  Plus the love story.  I’m such a sucker for love stories.  My friend Mary Lou asked me today if I’m romantic.  I had to say yes, because of course I am.  Very, I’m afraid.  But I’m also 82.  We don’t change that much, but our bodies do, and other things do.  We get better at being alone, maybe.  Who knows.  I barely know about me, how can I know about others.