Here is my current thought, followed by the thoughts and fears of my friend Eric Bernthal, written on the day after the election.
What Trump aims to do is this: make of the executive branch what the Republicans have done to SCOTUS. Destroy probity, inject sectarian agenda, destroy expertise, inject disrespect, egoism over beneficence, destruction over creation, out with the good people and in with the bad.
Trump is essentially destructive, zero-sum thinking, cruel, crude, and barbaric. But aside from those charming characteristics, the structure of government is in danger, as many have opined. The only remaining guardrails are the Congress - I have hopes for some traditional Republicans rejecting some nominees, for Mitch McConnell to be something of a leader in opposition to MAGA, and for the traditional partnership of congressional committees and the elements of government that they relate to forming a braking influence on destruction. It's also possible that the permanent government will resist their being purged. But we're really at the last ditch her of Federal guardrails.
I think the states will also have a braking influence - the residual guardrail of federalism. I expect the more Democratic states to relate more closely to each other, pass conforming legislation on environment, guns, and other objectives.
I would also hope that the Democrats would reimagine themselves, although I think there are a lot of retardants on that. Their operating theory is gerontocracy, that old hands should lead. Currently, there is a New York Times article saying that Jamie Raskin, age 61, is being encouraged to challenge Jerry Nadler, 78, for ranking member of the Judiciary Committee. Nadler is feisty and doesn't want to give up control. It's Joe Biden redux. I doubt Schumer is ready to go either, or the others mentioned in the article, or Richie Neal (Ways and Means,) or many others.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/30/us/politics/democrats-nadler-raskin.html.
Here's what I say to them: Fellas - read the tea leaves. A party of old people will find it hard to lead a younger country, and although I am reluctant to indulge in identity politics, age has to be considered. In a word, too many of the Democrats are navel gazing. New ideas usually don't flow from a 77 year old. People are fed up with "old hands." When it comes to guard rails, will the Democrats form a strong opposition with a real chance to take power, or will they be same-old same-old, tried and failed upward? Doesn't look so hopeful to me, but maybe the rank and file will realize that the Democrats as currently constituted are not part of the guardrails, but part of the enablers. It's a little depressing to think that my battle cry has to be, "You never know."
And here is the note written after the election by Bernthal, who had foreseen Trump's election, while I was confident Kamala would win. What he is outlining is what I refer to above as the SCOTUS-ization of the Executive, in some detail.
I am staggeringly depressed by this — not just Trump's win, but what is
likely a total sweep in Washington. I get not a drop of pleasure in
saying, "I told you so".
It's impossible to predict what this will do to the country, but the
United States has definitely gotten the President they wanted. Trump
improved his support among every demographic group in the country; he
gained tremendously with Latinos and with blue-collar
workers who were still traditionally Democratic (until now). He took
all the red states and plenty of blue states. He got plenty of women's
votes, too.
But what actually happens to our government? I remember when Reagan —
and Trump, too, first time around — put real clowns, dangerous and
delusional radicals into key positions, and their goal was literally to
tear the government down. It's likely to be that
and worse this time. RFK Jr. in charge of health care? Steve Bannon
setting national policy? Stephen Miller as the new Immigration Czar?
Michael Flynn running the military?There will be hyperpartisans — caring
about nothing but loyalty to the President —
running vastly complex and sophisticated organizations like DOJ, FDA,
Interior, Agriculture and so on. Those agencies and departments will be
stripped to the bone. No one is going to be protecting our air and
water; no one is going to keep the food supply
safe. The Supreme Court is now permanently -- at least, for several
generations -- removed as the ultimate protector of civil rights and
freedoms. Vast numbers of immigrant families will be rooted out,
rounded up, separated from their American citizen
children, and sent across the border. Trump's tariff mania is likely to
spike widespread job loss here in the US and trigger major inflation.
And the scariest part is to contemplate foreign policy, where Trump's
ignorance and inattentiveness will continue
to cede the world's markets to China, perhaps irrevocably. Ukraine will
either cede the eastern half of its country to Russia or disappear as a
country altogether within months. And in the ultimate irony for the
moronic Jews who supported Trump, maybe Israel
will, too. (How foolish of them to think that Trump actually gives a
shit about them, about Israel or about anything other than his
self-aggrandizement. As American popular support for Israel continues to
dwindle with every Palestinian death, Iran is likely
to bet that Americans won't care if Israel is overrun, and if they
don't care, Trump won't care. Unlike Biden, who proclaimed that he is a
"lifelong Zionist", Trump really holds no brief for Jews, Israel, or
anyone else, beyond himself.
Could things get even worse? Sure. We could have an actual collapse of
the core American social contract, the rise of an authoritarian
President -- with a Congress afraid to intercede -- giving us soldiers
in the streets to quell political dissent, brazen
gerrymandering to protect his support forever, acquiescence to
vigilantism by the worst of the MAGA crowd (Proud Boys and the like),
party loyalty tests for every government job, a complete rollback to the
freedoms attained by gay people, a near total ban
on immigration (destroying our labor supply and choking off our
traditional advantage of having the world's brightest people come here
to learn and to work and to innovate in many fields).
It might not be that bad. After all, Trump has no real political
philosophy (which differentiates him from Hitler) nor an adult's
attention span (which differentiates him from everyone else). And he's a
moron, not a monster, in his personal views (i.e., he's
not a warmonger or lusting for world control). But the moderates in
Congress are gone, the MAGAs are in control, the crazies (Bannon and
Miller and Flynn and RFK, JR) have total power. So why wouldn't this
dystopian view happen? Who is there to stop it?
Hoping that his is an exaggerated fear, not an understated one. We have no way of knowing, but the danger of falling into illiberalism is palpable. But we do know this: along with heinous views and aims, Trump and most of his associates are incompetents. While incompetents can destroy, they have trouble building. If American cultural norms hold - culture is the ultimate guardrail -- it's quite possible that the two coming years will be hard ones,and destructive ones, but ones that lead to a marked changing of the tide in the 2026 elections, and maybe this election of 2024 will mark the high-water mark of the MAGA insurgents.
You never know.
Budd Shenkin
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