One of the less elevated reasons I
started writing this blog was to get it on the record. “Do you
remember, this is just what I said, just what I predicted?” How
many times had I said that? Predicting is hard, especially about the
future, said Yogi. Right. But I flatter myself to think that that's one
thing I'm not bad at. And it just so happens that one of my foibles
– yes, I have to say, it's a weakness – is the need to
be recognized.
“Shenkin's smart!” Ahhhhh, music
to my ears. Yes, it's a foible. But hey, I'm not a saint, God
knows, and so do a lot of other people.
So, with the “blog of record”
self-designation in mind, here's what I think is happening and will
happen in the Senate vis-à-vis
health care. I think the American Health Care Act – also known as
the I Hate Children And Anyone Less Privileged Than I Am Act – is
doomed. No way to square that circle. The moderates, such as they
are, can't be brought along. Murkowski and Collins can't vote to
eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood, the Right won't stand for
abortion funding, and the whole thing is a time bomb for the
Republicans if it were to be passed with so many becoming worse off,
so those interested in power in the future – McConnell especially –
don't really want it to pass. The tax-cutting aspects are a problem,
but the rich will get something, don't worry about that, and getting
something will be better than getting nothing, which was their
alternative under the Dems. Also, even if they have not been way out
in the open, the hospitals need that Federal money that comes in via
Medicaid and subsidized private insurance. Not to mention the
insurance companies. Not to mention the academic centers. Not to
mention the jobs figures. So, it's a loser.
Given that prospect, imagine that you
are Mitch McConnell. What would your objectives be? You would want
to use the situation to strengthen your own power. You would want to
show the party members that you tried as hard as you could to do it –
promise kept. Then, you would want to help out each member of your
Senate delegation in a way that made them more indebted to you. How
would you do that?
You would make sure that each
individual senator knew that you understood his or her individual
self-interested situation. Dean Heller in Nevada, in deep trouble
for re-election, which he probably will not achieve in any event. He
can't lose all the votes he would by voting against the law that
gives so much to so many. “Dean, I understand. You're going to
have to vote against it. That's OK, I understand.” Think of the
undertaker and the Godfather – someday, and that day may never
come, I may need a favor, Dean ol' buddy.
To the Gang of Four on the Right:
“Fellas, I understand who your voters are, and how they have to see
you. Ted, you asshole, do what you have to do. You others, I
understand how your voters have to see you. If it comes down to
where I need you because it will actually pass, I'll call on you as a
group to come in, but otherwise, you can vote against it as a group,
if you want to. That includes you, too, Rand. But I'll let you all
make your statements, and if we do pass it after all, then you can
come in as a group and defend yourselves that way, and explain all
you got by hanging tough.”
To the ladies on the middle (can't say
Left with these people): “I understand that you have voters, and I
understand that your gender might have some feelings about Planned
Parenthood and all, and I know you have to do what you have to do. I
don't know if the others can go for something that continues with PP
– they have a lot of religious voters – and I don't know if they
can spend all that money on Medicaid, it's a lot of money, but I'll
try to get them to move. But if I can't, I'll protect you so that
you are not the ones who alone push it down. We'll make sure that it
loses by a lot and not a little, so you won't be primaried. I am
hoping, though, that when the tax bill comes up, that you'll be
flexible there.”
So, they will all owe Mitch for tending
to their own vulnerabilities. And then when it comes to taxes, they
will all owe him, and since tax-cutting gives more than it takes
away, and since it's not obvious at the time to Joe Schmo that he's
getting screwed, McConnell will wind up a winner.
So, my view: ACHA goes down to defeat,
the Dems crow, the hard Right grouses, but it all comes out in the
wash with filthy lucre and taxes.
You heard it here, with all the
forecasting that's fit to print. Or, I hardly need to mention, this analysis could be all wrong, AHCA could pass, compromises could be made in the end, in which case, of course, McConnell's stock would be higher than ever, with a great feat of legerdemain.
Budd Shenkin
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